Dhaka is the second most vulnerable city to serious flooding among nine coastal cities around the world and will remain so until 2100 unless measures to counter the threat are taken, suggests an international study.
The finding is the result of a new method developed by a team of researchers from the Netherlands and the University of Leeds for assessing flood vulnerability. The team also developed a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding.
Dhaka sits only 4 metres above the current sea level and is regularly hit by tropical cyclones and floods and yet it has few defences in place and little resilience, the study says.
While evaluating a city's physical attributes, the study also considers social and economic factors as they prepared the rating using 19 indicators.
According to the rating, the Chinese city Shanghai is considered the most exposed to the risk of flooding. Shanghai is particularly vulnerable because it is exposed to powerful storm surges and the land is subsiding as sea levels rise.
The rest of the rating order is Kolkata (India) and Manila (Philippines), Casablanca (Morocco), Rotterdam (Netherlands), Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Marseille (France), and Osaka (Japan).
The cities were picked up as these are built on river deltas.
The social vulnerability to floods of Shanghai, Dhaka and Manila will double by 2100, it says.
"The population close to the coastline and the number of cultural heritages exposed to floods will increase, so there is an urgent need for action towards adaptation measures by raising the anticipatory mentality of local population," finds the research that has appeared in the European journal Natural Hazards.
The analysis, the journal reports, reveals that the highly prosperous megapolis of Shanghai is more vulnerable than much poorer cities such as Dhaka,
Nigel Wright, from the University of Leeds' School of Civil Engineering, who led the study, said, "Vulnerability is a complex issue."
"It is not just about your exposure to flooding, but the effect it actually has on communities and business and how much a major flood disrupts economic activity," he added, according to a university statement.
He told BBC News current methods to determine vulnerability to flooding tends to be two dimensional.
"Very often we look at these sorts of things in a very deterministic way," he explained.
"We still use the physical ones but also economic and social ones, such as how much attention is given by local or national governments to protect citizens and citizens' property through investing in various forms of resilience," he added.
These included the percentage of a city's population living close to the coastline; the amount of time needed for a city to recover from flooding; the amount of uncontrolled development along the coastline, as well as the volume of measures to physically prevent floodwater entering a city.
The indicators that led to the measurement include measures of the level of economic activity in a city, its speed of recovery, and social issues such as the number of flood shelters, the awareness of people about flood risks, and the number of disabled people in the population.
"Our index looks at how cities are prepared for the worst — for example, do they have flood defences, do they have buildings that are easy to clean up and repair after the flood? It is important to know how quickly a city can recover from a major flood," Wright said.
Mohammad Abdul Qayyum, National Project Director of the government's Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme, however, ruled out the risk of coastal flooding in Dhaka.
"I did not see the study, but if they are talking about the risk of coastal flooding, then I'll say 'no'," he told bdnews24.com.
"Dhaka is not a coastal area. It has the risk of urban flooding."
Qayyum said as a country Bangladesh had the greatest risk of flooding. "But if I pinpoint an area of the country, then Dhaka is not the most at-risk city."
"We have mechanisms to identify the flood vulnerability even of a small village," he said.
The Project Director explained: "Dhaka is very much susceptible to urban flooding and even monsoon floods may enter from the eastern side as about 50 percent area is not protected by embankment."
He attributed unplanned urbanisation and lack of proper drainage system to the risk of Dhaka's urban flooding.
The finding is the result of a new method developed by a team of researchers from the Netherlands and the University of Leeds for assessing flood vulnerability. The team also developed a Coastal City Flood Vulnerability Index (CCFVI) based on exposure, susceptibility and resilience to coastal flooding.
Dhaka sits only 4 metres above the current sea level and is regularly hit by tropical cyclones and floods and yet it has few defences in place and little resilience, the study says.
While evaluating a city's physical attributes, the study also considers social and economic factors as they prepared the rating using 19 indicators.
According to the rating, the Chinese city Shanghai is considered the most exposed to the risk of flooding. Shanghai is particularly vulnerable because it is exposed to powerful storm surges and the land is subsiding as sea levels rise.
The rest of the rating order is Kolkata (India) and Manila (Philippines), Casablanca (Morocco), Rotterdam (Netherlands), Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Marseille (France), and Osaka (Japan).
The cities were picked up as these are built on river deltas.
The social vulnerability to floods of Shanghai, Dhaka and Manila will double by 2100, it says.
"The population close to the coastline and the number of cultural heritages exposed to floods will increase, so there is an urgent need for action towards adaptation measures by raising the anticipatory mentality of local population," finds the research that has appeared in the European journal Natural Hazards.
The analysis, the journal reports, reveals that the highly prosperous megapolis of Shanghai is more vulnerable than much poorer cities such as Dhaka,
Nigel Wright, from the University of Leeds' School of Civil Engineering, who led the study, said, "Vulnerability is a complex issue."
"It is not just about your exposure to flooding, but the effect it actually has on communities and business and how much a major flood disrupts economic activity," he added, according to a university statement.
He told BBC News current methods to determine vulnerability to flooding tends to be two dimensional.
"Very often we look at these sorts of things in a very deterministic way," he explained.
"We still use the physical ones but also economic and social ones, such as how much attention is given by local or national governments to protect citizens and citizens' property through investing in various forms of resilience," he added.
These included the percentage of a city's population living close to the coastline; the amount of time needed for a city to recover from flooding; the amount of uncontrolled development along the coastline, as well as the volume of measures to physically prevent floodwater entering a city.
The indicators that led to the measurement include measures of the level of economic activity in a city, its speed of recovery, and social issues such as the number of flood shelters, the awareness of people about flood risks, and the number of disabled people in the population.
"Our index looks at how cities are prepared for the worst — for example, do they have flood defences, do they have buildings that are easy to clean up and repair after the flood? It is important to know how quickly a city can recover from a major flood," Wright said.
Mohammad Abdul Qayyum, National Project Director of the government's Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme, however, ruled out the risk of coastal flooding in Dhaka.
"I did not see the study, but if they are talking about the risk of coastal flooding, then I'll say 'no'," he told bdnews24.com.
"Dhaka is not a coastal area. It has the risk of urban flooding."
Qayyum said as a country Bangladesh had the greatest risk of flooding. "But if I pinpoint an area of the country, then Dhaka is not the most at-risk city."
"We have mechanisms to identify the flood vulnerability even of a small village," he said.
The Project Director explained: "Dhaka is very much susceptible to urban flooding and even monsoon floods may enter from the eastern side as about 50 percent area is not protected by embankment."
He attributed unplanned urbanisation and lack of proper drainage system to the risk of Dhaka's urban flooding.
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