BANGLADESH

Reducing prices of essentials was the first of the five top priority agendas on Awami League's election manifesto. Now, nearing three years of its rule, the point-to-point inflation is twice what it was when the party took power.

In fact, the point-to-point inflation has been in the double digits for the last six months.

SOARING PRICES

In line with its election manifesto, the government has imported large quantities of food and created a consumer rights protection directorate, attempting to keep prices within people's reach. But all efforts have been in vain.

According to the statistics bureau, point-to-point inflation in December 2008 was 6.03 percent, while in November this year it was 11.58 percent.

The figures are far off the government's estimated target of a 7.5 percent inflation this fiscal. The finance minister, who was optimistic about the economy even two months ago, said he was uncertain about meeting the 7 percent growth target, recently.

Speaking at seminar organised by the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, A M A Muhith admitted that efforts to tame inflation had gone in vain.

"Investment levels have remained under 24 percent of the GDP for a decade now. That is not a happy picture for a country that is aiming for 7-8 percent growth," he said. "I am not sure where we are heading."

FUEL-LED INFLATION

Fuel demand for rental power plants saw its imports almost double over the last year, according to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation.

BPC chairman Abu Bakar Siddique told  that the demand for Bangladesh had been estimated at about 7 million tonnes of fuel in the current fiscal that would cost Tk 480-500 billion.

The petroleum corporation imported fuel worth about Tk 285 billion in the last 2010-2011 fiscal that ended in June. The year before that Bangladesh's fuel imports cost about Tk 165.66 billion.

Even after raising the fuel prices four times this year, the latest being on Thursday, the government has been spending billions subsidising it. To fund this massive subsidy, the government borrowed profusely from the banking sector at the beginning of the fiscal in July.

The foreign exchange reserves fell under pressure and the borrowing in the first four months of the fiscal reached 10 times more than what it was in the same period last year. In fact, in the first four months, July to November, government borrowings neared the Tk 189billion target fixed in budget and then crossed it.

Economists hold that this high fuel expenditure is wreaking havoc on an otherwise stable economy which seems to be performing well considering, revenue, export and remittances.

Prominent economist professor M A Taslim explained that the government had struck deals with the power plant companies that they would get fuel at a certain fixed price. "So now the government is compelled to subsidise fuel because it is legally bound to do so."

Mustafizur Rahman, the executive director of the Dhaka-based research organisation Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the higher bank borrowing was depriving the private investors, which in turn was affecting the entire economy.

Bangladesh Institute Development Studies director-general Mustafa K Mujeri had explained to : "Opportunities for the private sector to borrow money shrink when the government takes loans from commercial banks. On the other hand, new money hits the market if the government takes loans from the central bank, raising inflation."

Meanwhile, in early December, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics said fuel price hike was triggering inflation.

"Though food prices are falling, inflation remained steady last month since the impact of fuel price hike is now hitting other sectors," BBS director general Shahjahan Ali Molla told the press in the bureau's first-ever monthly inflation press meet.

PRESSURE ON RESERVES

At the end of the year the central bank's reserves stood at $9.35 billion, which would not be sufficient for paying off three months' imports.

During the year, the reserve has frequently been above the $ 10 billion mark, but rising import costs, particularly that of fuel, brought it below that level.

TAKA CHEAPER

The value of taka against US dollar dropped by Tk 10 in the past one year to Tk 80. Economists say this is owing to the pressure on forex reserves.

On Dec 27, Bangladesh Bank said it had traded dollar for Tk 81.60, while private and foreign banks sold dollar for even higher. Last year in December, the price of dollar was around Tk 70 to 70.25.

In comparison taka has depreciated by almost 15 percent in 2011.

AGRICULTURE FLOURISHING

Rice import dropped to almost zero last year and the government announced that barring natural disasters, no need will arise to buy rice for the next one year's supply.

Over 1.5 million tonnes of rice are reserved in the government warehouses, according to the finance minister.

"We have officially estimated that there will be no need to import rice in the next one year, if no big disaster occurs," he said.

The ample stock is a result of bumper productions in the past few seasons, non-governmental organisation BRAC's executive director Mahbub Hossain told .

There will be no need to import rice until 2012 as the reserve is adequate, Mahbub, a former director-general of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, said.